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FIRST QUARTER PREPANDEMIC
Heading into 2020 and prior to the Coronavirus (COVID) pandemic,
the key concerns were still labor shortages in construction trades,
taris, and trade relationships. The construction market showed
signs of slowing down, but growth was expected to continue into
2020. Likewise, construction of mixed-use and stand-alone parking
structures was to remain steady. Prior to the COVID pandemic industry
experts reported the following regarding construction activity:
• The American Institute of Architects (AIA) chief economist Kermit
Baker, PhD stated that, “design activity at architecture firms,
historically a very accurate leading indicator of future construction
activity, showed unexpected weakness earlier in 2019. However,
design billings improved during the fourth quarter, and new projects
coming into architecture firms saw strong growth toward the end
of the year. So, while 2020 and 2021 are expected to see only very
modest gains in construction spending nationally, the prospects of
a more significant downturn over this period have dimmed recently.”
The article also reported that, “The American Institute of Architect’s
Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is projecting just a 1.5%
increase in spending on nonresidential buildings this year and less
than 1% increase in 2021, according to recently released results.”¹
• Turner Construction’s Turner Building Cost Index, which tracks
construction costs, indicated 1.29% increase in the fourth quarter
of 2019 and a 4.84% increase during 2019. Its 2019 Fourth Quarter
Forecast states that, “We continue to see the construction market
fairly busy with several large projects starting in the fourth quarter
of 2019.”²
• ENR reported in its 2019 Fourth Quarter Cost Report a forecasted
1.6% increase in the Building Cost Index for 2020.³
• ENR reported in its 2020 First Quarter Cost Report that, “The concern
about the emergence of COVID-19, as the disease caused by the virus
is known, has had surprisingly little impact on industry executives’
views of the construction market in the near term, at least as seen in
the latest results of ENR’s latest Construction Industry Confidence
Index (CICI) survey. It rose four points to 56 in the first quarter of
2020 from the fourth quarter of 2019 – an especially surprising result
given that 44% of the surveys came in after the media began heavy
coverage of the health crisis.”⁴
PARKING INDUSTRY CONSTRUCTION ECONOMIC FORECAST
Eight-level, 400-space CIP PT parking structure. The development includes street-level
retail, a nine-story residential building, and a 10-story oice building.
SECOND QUARTER PANDEMIC
During the pandemic shutdown, the AIA Architecture Billings Index
(ABI) score plummeted to 29.5 in April, a new all-time low. Any
number below 50 indicates a decrease in billing. The ABI serves as
a leading economic indicator that leads non-residential construction
activity by approximately 9-12 months. The northeast region was hit
the hardest followed by the south region. Firms in the west region
reported somewhat less dramatic losses than the other regions in
April, but overall, all the regions had significant declines in billings.⁵
This decrease in billings resulted in approximately 11,000 positions, or
approximately 5.5%, lost in architectural firms in April. The construction
industry also lost 995,000 jobs in April, 13% of the workforce.
The AIA published an April 6 update to its 2020 projections for the non-
residential construction industry. The article stated, “The American
Institute of Architect’s Consensus Construction forecast panel is now
projecting an 11% decline, with the sharpest decline predicted to occur
in the commercial construction sector. While a slight 0.6% growth was
originally forecast for 2020, it has now been revised down to a loss of
14%. Institutional construction spending will also be hard hit, although
not quite as seriously as commercial with losses of 7% now projected
versus 2.9% growth predicted in December.”⁶
An article published by For Construction Pros on April 10, 2020,
noted, “Dodge forecasts the square footage of parking garage starts
this year falling 29%, oice starts dropping 13%, retail space down
33%, and hotels and motels down 31%. The biggest commercial
building sector — warehouses — however, is only expected to slip
1%.”⁷
As the world tries to recover from this global pandemic and the
economy here in the United States starts to open up, there remains
uncertainty in the design and construction industry. AIA Chief
Economist Kermit Baker, PhD noted, “A large portion of the design
and construction industry remains mired in steep cutbacks as many
businesses and organizations are still trying to figure out what actions
make sense in this uncertain economic environment.” He went on
to add, “There are growing signs of activity beginning to pick up in
some areas, but others are seeing a pause as pandemic concerns
continue to grow.”⁸
However, there are some positive signs out there. The housing
sector seems to be quickly recovering. The AIA Architecture Billings
Index (ABI), which plummeted to 29.5 in April, rose to 32.0 in May.
Construction employment in May increased by 464,000 jobs.